{"id":2030,"date":"2026-03-26T01:19:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T22:19:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/soberano.news\/?p=2030"},"modified":"2026-03-26T01:19:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T22:19:49","slug":"analise-da-wintermute-descreve-3-cenarios-para-o-preco-do-bitcoin-nos-proximos-dias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soberano.news\/es\/dinheiro-e-patrimonio\/analise-da-wintermute-descreve-3-cenarios-para-o-preco-do-bitcoin-nos-proximos-dias\/","title":{"rendered":"An\u00e1lise da Wintermute descreve 3 cen\u00e1rios para o pre\u00e7o do Bitcoin nos pr\u00f3ximos dias"},"content":{"rendered":"

Na manh\u00e3 de segunda-feira, 23 de mar\u00e7o, o Bitcoin voltou a superar a marca de US$ 70 mil ap\u00f3s o presidente Trump anunciar uma pausa de cinco dias nos ataques americanos \u00e0 infraestrutura de energia iraniana, citando conversas diplom\u00e1ticas em andamento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A criptomoeda havia encerrado a semana anterior entre US$ 67.800 e US$ 68.500, pressionada pela decis\u00e3o do Fed e pela escalada da crise no Golfo P\u00e9rsico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Cross-Asset<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A an\u00e1lise<\/a> da Wintermute, elaborada pelo trader OTC @Jjay_dm, concentra-se nos pr\u00f3ximos dias e mapeia os tr\u00eas cen\u00e1rios principais para o pre\u00e7o do Bitcoin, com base na evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da pausa anunciada e no vencimento de op\u00e7\u00f5es previsto para 27 de mar\u00e7o (quando a \u201cmax pain\u201d est\u00e1 concentrada em torno de US$ 70 mil).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contexto da semana anterior: Fed e geopol\u00edtica dominam<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

O Bitcoin chegou a US$ 74 mil no meio da semana anterior, mas o movimento foi impulsionado por short squeeze e press\u00e3o de gamma no mercado de op\u00e7\u00f5es, sem influxo relevante de compras spot. O FOMC de 18 de mar\u00e7o interrompeu o rali pela s\u00e9tima vez em oito reuni\u00f5es: os juros foram mantidos em 3,50\u20133,75%, com tom hawkish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dos 19 participantes, 14 projetam zero ou apenas um corte de juros at\u00e9 o fim de 2026, e a taxa mediana esperada ao final do ano \u00e9 de 3,4%. Qualquer afrouxamento, segundo o Fed, exige \u201cprogresso claro e sustentado\u201d na infla\u00e7\u00e3o. Com isso, o mercado praticamente eliminou cortes antes do outono americano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na sexta-feira, o quadro geopol\u00edtico agravou-se: o Iraque declarou force majeure<\/em> em campos de petr\u00f3leo operados por estrangeiros, drones atingiram refinarias no Kuwait, o Brent fechou acima de US$ 112 (maior patamar desde meados de 2022), o S&P 500 rompeu abaixo da m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 200 dias pela primeira vez desde maio de 2025 e o yield do Tesouro de 10 anos subiu 13,5 pontos-base para cerca de 4,40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin resiliente enquanto o ouro desabava<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Diferentemente do ouro, que registrou a maior queda semanal desde 1983 (mais de 10%), com o d\u00f3lar acima de 100 e chamadas de margem em cascata, o Bitcoin se manteve relativamente firme. Os fluxos acumulados dos ETFs de Bitcoin foram positivos na semana, mesmo com uma sa\u00edda pontual de US$ 708 milh\u00f5es no dia seguinte ao FOMC (maior volume di\u00e1rio em dois meses).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O Ethereum se destacou positivamente: seus ETFs registraram a maior entrada semanal da hist\u00f3ria (US$ 160,8 milh\u00f5es). A Wintermute atribui isso \u00e0 atratividade relativa do staking yield em um ambiente de juros elevados por mais tempo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os tr\u00eas cen\u00e1rios para o pre\u00e7o do Bitcoin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A pausa de cinco dias anunciada por Trump \u00e9 o principal catalisador de curto prazo. A Wintermute delineia os seguintes cen\u00e1rios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. De-escalada parcial<\/strong>: se o Brent se estabilizar pr\u00f3ximo a US$ 100 e as conversas diplom\u00e1ticas avan\u00e7arem, os temores inflacion\u00e1rios ligados \u00e0 energia diminuem. Isso pode fazer parte das expectativas de corte de juros eliminadas na semana anterior voltar ao mercado, reduzindo o vento contr\u00e1rio para ativos de risco. Nesse caso, o Bitcoin tem caminho para testar a resist\u00eancia entre US$ 74 mil e US$ 76 mil \u2014 zona que j\u00e1 rejeitou o pre\u00e7o duas vezes recentemente.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Ruptura das negocia\u00e7\u00f5es<\/strong>: se as conversas fracassarem ou as restri\u00e7\u00f5es no Estreito de Ormuz persistirem, o pr\u00eamio de risco do petr\u00f3leo se reconstr\u00f3i. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o permanece elevada, as expectativas de corte de juros s\u00e3o adiadas ainda mais e os mercados voltam ao modo risk-off. O Bitcoin deve, ent\u00e3o, retestar o suporte na faixa de US$ 60 mil a US$ 65 mil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o sustentada do Estreito de Ormuz<\/strong>: uma de-escalada real, com retomada plena do tr\u00e1fego pelo estreito, removeria o peso inflacion\u00e1rio, daria maior flexibilidade ao Fed e melhoraria o cen\u00e1rio macro para ativos de risco. Com as compras institucionais em dips continuando, a Wintermute considera realista um movimento do Bitcoin em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a US$ 80 mil.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    A an\u00e1lise da Wintermute refor\u00e7a que, sem catalisador do Fed no curto prazo, o pre\u00e7o do Bitcoin nos pr\u00f3ximos dias ser\u00e1 definido principalmente pela evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da geopol\u00edtica no Golfo e pela rea\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado \u00e0 pausa de cinco dias.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Na manh\u00e3 de segunda-feira, 23 de mar\u00e7o, o Bitcoin voltou a superar a marca de US$ 70 mil ap\u00f3s o presidente Trump anunciar uma pausa de cinco dias nos ataques americanos \u00e0 infraestrutura de energia iraniana, citando conversas diplom\u00e1ticas em andamento. A criptomoeda havia encerrado a semana anterior entre US$ 67.800 e US$ 68.500, pressionada […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1263,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-2030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dinheiro-e-patrimonio","tag-hot","pmpro-has-access"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"\nAn\u00e1lise da Wintermute descreve 3 cen\u00e1rios para o pre\u00e7o do Bitcoin nos pr\u00f3ximos dias<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A Wintermute, uma das maiores mesas de trading cripto do mundo, publicou sua leitura do momento: o Bitcoin mostrou resili\u00eancia enquanto o ouro sofria a pior semana desde 1983, o Ethereum registrou entrada recorde em ETFs e o cen\u00e1rio geopol\u00edtico definir\u00e1 o 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