“There's not enough Bitcoin for everyone,” says Michael Saylor

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On Thursday, March 5th, Michael Saylor, the CEO of Strategy, published a brief tweet summarizing his investment thesis: “Not enough Bitcoin for everyone“.

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The following day, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3 and ex-Blockstream, responded using the mathematical point of view and the divisibility of Bitcoin. If the 21 million BTC were divided equally between every person on the planet, each would receive approximately 259,259 satoshis.

At first glance, this seems to contradict Saylor: if Bitcoin is divisible enough for everyone to have some, why say that it's not enough?

To understand Saylor's tweet, you have to look at the market context. Between 2020 and 2023, the billionaire's business model stopped revolving around a traditional BI (Business Intelligence) software company and began to focus on the aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin. The change was so profound that MicroStrategy even changed its name to Strategy, reflecting this new direction, and is now seen by many investors almost as a BTC ETF.

Since then, many of his statements have been aimed at boosting the Bitcoin market, and highlighting scarcity is one way of doing this. Mow certainly understood Saylor's angle, but only added an important technical context to the tweet. We'll go into more detail below.

The real problem is not divisibility

Considering the limit of 21 million Bitcoin and more than 9 billion people in the world, there aren't enough bitcoins for everyone. However, each BTC is divisible into up to 100 million satoshis (similar to cents for the real), which would eliminate this problem.

According to Satoshis Per Person, According to the report, which tracks the real-time calculation of the current supply of BTC divided by the world's population, the ideal fraction of Bitcoin per person is around 0.0021 BTC. The equivalent of US$ 144.75, or R$ 758.49.

The problem is not divisibility. É concentration.

What Saylor means, in the end, is that the race for Bitcoin has already begun, and those who aren't accumulating now will find themselves in a hurry. less available and more expensive in the future.

Your own company now holds approximately 3.5% of all the Bitcoin supply that will ever exist. Taking into account the above data, Strategy alone already covers the theoretical quota of tens of millions of people.

And Strategy is not alone.

Who is already running after accumulating Bitcoin

According to Bitcoin Treasuries, 95% of all corporate reserves in cryptoassets are in Bitcoin. The corporate treasury movement that began with Strategy in 2020 has become a global phenomenon: Metaplanet in Japan, Marathon Digital, Semler Scientific, and dozens of other companies are steadily accumulating BTC on their balance sheets.

Top 100 companies with the most BTC on hand
Top 100 companies with the most BTC on hand | Source: BitcoinTreasuries.net

On the state side, the figures are even more impressive. The US holds around 198,000 confiscated BTC, now permanently held by the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. China has an estimated 190,000 BTC seized. The UK, 61,000. O Kazakhstan, this week's news, is on its way to becoming the 8th largest sovereign Bitcoin reserve in the world.

Add to this the Bitcoin ETFs on the market in the US, which in less than two years of existence have accumulated more than 1 million BTC in custody. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other managers buying and holding BTC on behalf of institutional clients.

The practical result of all this: a larger and larger share of the Bitcoin supply is being withdrawn from circulation and locked away in corporate, government and institutional vaults. What's left for the open market gets smaller every year.

And although we're currently in a bear market, it's remarkable how much Bitcoin's price has grown over longer time windows. In the last 3 years, Bitcoin's price has tripled, even taking into account the downturn in recent months.

The window is still open, but it's closing

The debate between Mow and Saylor has an implicit conclusion that neither of them needs to say out loud: time matters.

Every BTC that enters the balance sheet of the Strategy, an ETF or a sovereign reserve is a BTC that leaves the supply available to the individual investor. Reservations on the exchanges are at lowest level since November 2018, something we covered here recently. The pressure of scarcity is building in slow motion, visible in the on-chain data for those who want to see.

The reflection that this debate poses for each person reading this is: will you be among those who accumulated before the race intensified, or among those who will discover too late that 259,000 sats cost more than you thought?


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